Articles | Volume 5, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-1-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-5-1-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Jan 2016
Research article |
| 19 Jan 2016
Designing optimal greenhouse gas monitoring networks for Australia
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Aspendale, VIC 3195, Australia
R. M. Law
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Aspendale, VIC 3195, Australia
P. J. Rayner
School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia
G. Roff
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC 3008, Australia
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Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
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Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
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The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
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Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
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We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
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The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Rachel M. Law, Tilo Ziehn, Richard J. Matear, Andrew Lenton, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Lauren E. Stevens, Ying-Ping Wang, Jhan Srbinovsky, Daohua Bi, Hailin Yan, and Peter F. Vohralik
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2567–2590, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2567-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2567-2017, 2017
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The paper describes a version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator that has been enabled to simulate the carbon cycle, which is designated ACCESS-ESM1. The model performance for pre-industrial conditions is assessed and land and ocean carbon fluxes are found to be simulated realistically.
Tilo Ziehn, Andrew Lenton, Rachel M. Law, Richard J. Matear, and Matthew A. Chamberlain
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2591–2614, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2591-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2591-2017, 2017
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Our work presents the evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-ESM1) over the historical period (1850–2005). The main focus is on climate and carbon related variables. Globally integrated land–atmosphere and ocean–atmosphere fluxes and flux patterns are well reproduced and show good agreement with most recent observations. This makes ACCESS-ESM1 a useful tool to explore the change in land and oceanic carbon uptake in the future.
A. Nickless, T. Ziehn, P.J. Rayner, R.J. Scholes, and F. Engelbrecht
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2051–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2051-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2051-2015, 2015
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This study aims to provide an optimal network design for the placement of new atmospheric monitoring stations around South Africa, to best estimate the emission and uptake of carbon dioxide fluxes due to both anthropogenic and natural sources. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed on the impact that certain parameters would have on the final network solution, considering the inverse modelling framework, the transport model and the use of a different optimisation routine.
T. Ziehn, A. Nickless, P. J. Rayner, R. M. Law, G. Roff, and P. Fraser
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9363–9378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9363-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9363-2014, 2014
S. Kemp, M. Scholze, T. Ziehn, and T. Kaminski
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1609–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1609-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1609-2014, 2014
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Idealized experiments with Earth system models provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to emissions. We show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean and hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. We reduce the coupled system to only one differential equation, which represents a powerful simplification of the Earth system dynamics as a function of fossil fuel emissions.
Bartholomé Duboc, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Babette Hoogakker, Tilo Ziehn, and Matthew Chamberlain
Clim. Past, 21, 1093–1122, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We use an earth system model to simulate ocean oxygen during two past warm periods, the Last Interglacial (∼ 129–115 ka) and Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 9e (∼ 336–321 ka). The global ocean is overall less oxygenated compared to the preindustrial simulation. Large regions in the Mediterranean Sea are oxygen deprived in the Last Interglacial simulation, and to a lesser extent in the MIS 9e simulation, due to an intensification and expansion of the African monsoon and enhanced river runoff.
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025
Short summary
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Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.21 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasize the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2111–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from various Earth system models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons of carbon or nitrogen. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land-use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Andrew D. King, Nerilie J. Abram, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-903, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
It is vital that climate changes under net zero emissions are well understood to support decision making processes. Current modelling efforts are insufficient, partly due to limited simulation lengths. We propose a framework for 1000-year-long simulations that attempts to minimise computing resources by leveraging existing simulations. This will ultimately increase understanding of the implications of current climate policies for the Earth System over coming decades and centuries.
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
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We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
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The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Benjamin Mark Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew Macdougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Seferian, Lori Sentman, Isla Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman Steinert, Abigail Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, 2024
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This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated zero emissions commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Andrew D. King, Tilo Ziehn, Matthew Chamberlain, Alexander R. Borowiak, Josephine R. Brown, Liam Cassidy, Andrea J. Dittus, Michael Grose, Nicola Maher, Seungmok Paik, Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, and Aditya Sengupta
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1353–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024, 2024
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Governments are targeting net-zero emissions later this century with the aim of limiting global warming in line with the Paris Agreement. However, few studies explore the long-term consequences of reaching net-zero emissions and the effects of a delay in reaching net-zero. We use the Australian Earth system model to examine climate evolution under net-zero emissions. We find substantial changes which differ regionally, including continued Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic sea ice reduction.
Matthew A. Chamberlain, Tilo Ziehn, and Rachel M. Law
Biogeosciences, 21, 3053–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, 2024
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This paper explores the climate processes that drive increasing global average temperatures in zero-emission commitment (ZEC) simulations despite decreasing atmospheric CO2. ACCESS-ESM1.5 shows the Southern Ocean to continue to warm locally in all ZEC simulations. In ZEC simulations that start after the emission of more than 1000 Pg of carbon, the influence of the Southern Ocean increases the global temperature.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Yohanna Villalobos, Peter J. Rayner, Jeremy D. Silver, Steven Thomas, Vanessa Haverd, Jürgen Knauer, Zoë M. Loh, Nicholas M. Deutscher, David W. T. Griffith, and David F. Pollard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8897–8934, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8897-2022, 2022
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We study the interannual variability in Australian carbon fluxes for 2015–2019 derived from OCO-2 satellite data. Our results suggest that Australia's semi-arid ecosystems are highly responsive to variations in climate drivers such as rainfall and temperature. We found that high rainfall and low temperatures recorded in 2016 led to an anomalous carbon sink over savanna and sparsely vegetated regions, while unprecedented dry and hot weather in 2019 led to anomalous carbon release.
Dipayan Choudhury, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Matthew Chamberlain, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 18, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-507-2022, 2022
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We investigate the effects of a warmer climate from the Earth's paleoclimate (last interglacial) on the marine carbon cycle of the Southern Ocean using a carbon-cycle-enabled state-of-the-art climate model. We find a 150 % increase in CO2 outgassing during this period, which results from competition between higher sea surface temperatures and weaker oceanic circulation. From this we unequivocally infer that the carbon uptake by the Southern Ocean will reduce under a future warming scenario.
Zhenyi Chen, Robyn Schofield, Melita Keywood, Sam Cleland, Alastair G. Williams, Alan Griffiths, Stephen Wilson, Peter Rayner, and Xiaowen Shu
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-104, 2022
Revised manuscript not accepted
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This study studied the marine boundary layer (MBL) process and aerosol properties in the Southern Ocean using miniMPL, ceilometer and sodar. Compared to the gradient method, the Image Edge Detection Algorithm provides more reliable boundary layer height estimations, especially when a convective MBL with stratification existed. The diurnal characteristic of BLH with the veering of the wind vector was also observed. Under the continental sources, the MBL maintained a well-mixed layer of 0.3 km.
Yohanna Villalobos, Peter J. Rayner, Jeremy D. Silver, Steven Thomas, Vanessa Haverd, Jürgen Knauer, Zoë M. Loh, Nicholas M. Deutscher, David W. T. Griffith, and David F. Pollard
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17453–17494, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17453-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17453-2021, 2021
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Semi-arid ecosystems such as those in Australia are evolving and might play an essential role in the future of climate change. We use carbon dioxide concentrations derived from the OCO-2 satellite instrument and a regional transport model to understand if Australia was a carbon sink or source of CO2 in 2015. Our research's main findings suggest that Australia acted as a carbon sink of about −0.41 ± 0.08 petagrams of carbon in 2015, driven primarily by savanna and sparsely vegetated ecosystems.
Nicholas King-Hei Yeung, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Andréa S. Taschetto, Tilo Ziehn, and Matthew Chamberlain
Clim. Past, 17, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-869-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-869-2021, 2021
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The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is characterised by strong orbital forcing compared to the pre-industrial period (PI). This study compares the mean climate state of the LIG to the PI as simulated by the ACCESS-ESM1.5, with a focus on the southern hemispheric monsoons, which are shown to be consistently weakened. This is associated with cooler terrestrial conditions in austral summer due to decreased insolation, and greater pressure and subsidence over land from Hadley cell strengthening.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ryouta O'ishi, Silvana Ramos Buarque, David Salas y Melia, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Julienne Stroeve, Xiaoxu Shi, Bo Sun, Robert A. Tomas, Evgeny Volodin, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 17, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-37-2021, 2021
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The Last interglacial (ca. 127 000 years ago) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, resulting in a strong reduction in Arctic sea ice. The latest PMIP4-CMIP6 models all simulate this decrease, consistent with reconstructions. However, neither the models nor the reconstructions agree on the possibility of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Work to clarify the reasons for this model divergence and the conflicting interpretations of the records will thus be needed.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
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Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Jared Lewis, Matthew J. Gidden, Elisabeth Vogel, Mandy Freund, Urs Beyerle, Claudia Gessner, Alexander Nauels, Nico Bauer, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Andrew John, Paul B. Krummel, Gunnar Luderer, Nicolai Meinshausen, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Stefan Reimann, Steven J. Smith, Marten van den Berg, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, and Ray H. J. Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020
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This study provides the future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations under the new set of so-called SSP scenarios (the successors of the IPCC SRES and previous representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios). The projected CO2 concentrations range from 350 ppm for low-emission scenarios by 2150 to more than 2000 ppm under the high-emission scenarios. We also provide concentrations, latitudinal gradients, and seasonality for most of the other 42 considered GHGs.
Yohanna Villalobos, Peter Rayner, Steven Thomas, and Jeremy Silver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8473–8500, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8473-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8473-2020, 2020
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Estimated carbon fluxes for Australia are subject to considerable uncertainty. We ran simulation experiments over Australia to determine how much these uncertainties can be constrained using satellite data. We found that the satellite data has the potential to reduce these uncertainties up to 80 % across the whole continent. For 1 month, this percentage corresponds to 0.51 Pg C y-1 for Australia. This method could lead to significantly more accurate estimates of Australia's carbon budget.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
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We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
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The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Peter Rayner
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3725–3737, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3725-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3725-2020, 2020
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This work extends previous calculations of carbon dioxide sources and sinks to take account of the varying quality of atmospheric models. It uses an extended version of Bayesian statistics which includes the model as one of the unknowns. I performed the work as an example of including the model in the description of the uncertainty.
Peter J. Rayner, Anna M. Michalak, and Frédéric Chevallier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13911–13932, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13911-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13911-2019, 2019
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This paper describes the methods for combining models and data to understand how nutrients and pollutants move through natural systems. The methods are analogous to the process of weather forecasting in which previous information is combined with new observations and a model to improve our knowledge of the internal state of the physical system. The methods appear highly diverse but the paper shows that they are all examples of a single underlying formalism.
Alexander J. Norton, Peter J. Rayner, Ernest N. Koffi, Marko Scholze, Jeremy D. Silver, and Ying-Ping Wang
Biogeosciences, 16, 3069–3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3069-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3069-2019, 2019
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This study presents an estimate of global terrestrial photosynthesis. We make use of satellite chlorophyll fluorescence measurements, a visible indicator of photosynthesis, to optimize model parameters and estimate photosynthetic carbon uptake. This new framework incorporates nonlinear, process-based understanding of the link between fluorescence and photosynthesis, an advance on past approaches. This will aid in the utility of fluorescence to quantify terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks.
Alecia Nickless, Peter J. Rayner, Robert J. Scholes, Francois Engelbrecht, and Birgit Erni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7789–7816, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7789-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7789-2019, 2019
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Different frameworks for an atmospheric inversion study over Cape Town, South Africa, are considered. We focused particularly on how sensitive the estimates of CO2 fluxes were to changes in the way the uncertainty in these estimates was specified and the impact different prior information had on the final flux estimates. We used atmospheric measurements from two new sites located near Cape Town: Robben Island and Hangklip lighthouses, which were specifically deployed for this inversion study.
Anna Agustí-Panareda, Michail Diamantakis, Sébastien Massart, Frédéric Chevallier, Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater, Jérôme Barré, Roger Curcoll, Richard Engelen, Bavo Langerock, Rachel M. Law, Zoë Loh, Josep Anton Morguí, Mark Parrington, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Ramonet, Coleen Roehl, Alex T. Vermeulen, Thorsten Warneke, and Debra Wunch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7347–7376, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7347-2019, 2019
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This paper demonstrates the benefits of using global models with high horizontal resolution to represent atmospheric CO2 patterns associated with evolving weather. The modelling of CO2 weather is crucial to interpret the variability from ground-based and satellite CO2 observations, which can then be used to infer CO2 fluxes in atmospheric inversions. The benefits of high resolution come from an improved representation of the topography, winds, tracer transport and CO2 flux distribution.
Ann R. Stavert, Rachel M. Law, Marcel van der Schoot, Ray L. Langenfelds, Darren A. Spencer, Paul B. Krummel, Scott D. Chambers, Alistair G. Williams, Sylvester Werczynski, Roger J. Francey, and Russell T. Howden
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 1103–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1103-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-1103-2019, 2019
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The Southern Ocean is a key sink of carbon dioxide (CO2), but efforts to study trends in and the variability of the sink have been hindered by the limited number of CO2 measurements in this region. Here we describe a set of new in situ continuous (minutely) atmospheric CO2 observations. We show that this new record better captures long-term changes and seasonality than traditional 2-weekly flask records. As such, this data set will provide key insights into the changing Southern Ocean sink.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Alexander J. Norton, Peter J. Rayner, Ernest N. Koffi, Marko Scholze, Jeremy D. Silver, and Ying-Ping Wang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-270, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-270, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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This study presents a global estimate of land carbon uptake through photosynthesis. We make use satellite chlorophyll fluorescence measurements, a visible indicator of photosynthesis, to optimize model parameters and then use the optimized model to estimate photosynthetic carbon uptake. This provides a new tool that can combine measurements and observations in a systematic way and maximise the use of chlorophyll fluorescence to improve our understanding of the land carbon cycle.
Alexander J. Norton, Peter J. Rayner, Ernest N. Koffi, and Marko Scholze
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1517–1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1517-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1517-2018, 2018
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It is difficult to estimate how much CO2 plants absorb via photosynthesis and even more difficult to model this for the whole globe. Here, we present a framework to combine a new satellite measurement "solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence" with a global photosynthesis model. We then quantify how this new measurement constrains model uncertainties and find highly effective constraint. These results pave a novel pathway for improving estimates and modelling abilities of photosynthesis globally.
Alecia Nickless, Peter J. Rayner, Francois Engelbrecht, Ernst-Günther Brunke, Birgit Erni, and Robert J. Scholes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4765–4801, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4765-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4765-2018, 2018
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Carbon dioxide emissions and uptake were estimated for Cape Town, South Africa. We placed two high-precision analysers in lighthouses located on either end of Cape Town (Robben Island and Hangklip). The Cape Point GAW station provided background measurements. We were able to improve the agreement between modelled and observed concentrations, relative to initial estimates provided. This methodology could potentially be scaled up to provide monitoring and verification of city emissions.
Thomas Kaminski and Peter Julian Rayner
Biogeosciences, 14, 4755–4766, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4755-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4755-2017, 2017
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Observations can reduce uncertainties in past, current, and predicted natural and anthropogenic CO2 fluxes. They provide independent information for verification of actions as requested by the Paris Agreement. Quantitative network design (QND) is an objective approach to optimise in situ networks and space missions to achieve an optimal use of the observational capabilities. We describe recent progress and advocate an integrated QND system that simultaneously evaluates multiple data streams.
Rachel M. Law, Tilo Ziehn, Richard J. Matear, Andrew Lenton, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Lauren E. Stevens, Ying-Ping Wang, Jhan Srbinovsky, Daohua Bi, Hailin Yan, and Peter F. Vohralik
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2567–2590, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2567-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2567-2017, 2017
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The paper describes a version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator that has been enabled to simulate the carbon cycle, which is designated ACCESS-ESM1. The model performance for pre-industrial conditions is assessed and land and ocean carbon fluxes are found to be simulated realistically.
Tilo Ziehn, Andrew Lenton, Rachel M. Law, Richard J. Matear, and Matthew A. Chamberlain
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2591–2614, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2591-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2591-2017, 2017
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Our work presents the evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-ESM1) over the historical period (1850–2005). The main focus is on climate and carbon related variables. Globally integrated land–atmosphere and ocean–atmosphere fluxes and flux patterns are well reproduced and show good agreement with most recent observations. This makes ACCESS-ESM1 a useful tool to explore the change in land and oceanic carbon uptake in the future.
Malte Meinshausen, Elisabeth Vogel, Alexander Nauels, Katja Lorbacher, Nicolai Meinshausen, David M. Etheridge, Paul J. Fraser, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Cathy M. Trudinger, Paul B. Krummel, Urs Beyerle, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Ian G. Enting, Rachel M. Law, Chris R. Lunder, Simon O'Doherty, Ron G. Prinn, Stefan Reimann, Mauro Rubino, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, Ray H. J. Wang, and Ray Weiss
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2057–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, 2017
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Climate change is primarily driven by human-induced increases of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Based on ongoing community efforts (e.g. AGAGE and NOAA networks, ice cores), this study presents historical concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O and 40 other GHGs from year 0 to year 2014. The data is recommended as input for climate models for pre-industrial, historical runs under CMIP6. Global means, but also latitudinal by monthly surface concentration fields are provided.
Cathy M. Trudinger, Paul J. Fraser, David M. Etheridge, William T. Sturges, Martin K. Vollmer, Matt Rigby, Patricia Martinerie, Jens Mühle, David R. Worton, Paul B. Krummel, L. Paul Steele, Benjamin R. Miller, Johannes Laube, Francis S. Mani, Peter J. Rayner, Christina M. Harth, Emmanuel Witrant, Thomas Blunier, Jakob Schwander, Simon O'Doherty, and Mark Battle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 11733–11754, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11733-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-11733-2016, 2016
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Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are potent, long-lived and mostly man-made greenhouse gases released to the atmosphere mainly during aluminium production and semiconductor manufacture. Here we present the first continuous histories of three PFCs from 1800 to 2014, derived from measurements of these PFCs in the atmosphere and in air bubbles in polar ice. The records show how human actions have affected these important greenhouse gases over the past century.
Philippe Peylin, Cédric Bacour, Natasha MacBean, Sébastien Leonard, Peter Rayner, Sylvain Kuppel, Ernest Koffi, Abdou Kane, Fabienne Maignan, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, and Pascal Prunet
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3321–3346, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3321-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3321-2016, 2016
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The study describes a carbon cycle data assimilation system that uses satellite observations of vegetation activity, net ecosystem exchange of carbon and water at many sites and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, in order to optimize the parameters of the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The optimized model is able to fit all three data streams leading to a land carbon uptake similar to independent estimates, which opens new perspectives for better prediction of the land carbon balance.
Denis M. O'Brien, Igor N. Polonsky, Steven R. Utembe, and Peter J. Rayner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 4633–4654, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4633-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4633-2016, 2016
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The accuracy with which emissions of CO2, CH4 and CO from a complex city can be estimated from geostationary orbit is assessed via numerical experiment. Sources of the gases, meteorology, clouds and aerosols over the city are simulated, as are spectra of reflected sunlight in absorption bands of the gases. Gas concentrations are estimated from the spectra, and source distributions from the concentrations. Comparison of estimated and true sources measures the accuracy of the observing system.
Bart van den Hurk, Hyungjun Kim, Gerhard Krinner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Chris Derksen, Taikan Oki, Hervé Douville, Jeanne Colin, Agnès Ducharne, Frederique Cheruy, Nicholas Viovy, Michael J. Puma, Yoshihide Wada, Weiping Li, Binghao Jia, Andrea Alessandri, Dave M. Lawrence, Graham P. Weedon, Richard Ellis, Stefan Hagemann, Jiafu Mao, Mark G. Flanner, Matteo Zampieri, Stefano Materia, Rachel M. Law, and Justin Sheffield
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2809–2832, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, 2016
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This manuscript describes the setup of the CMIP6 project Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP).
Eva A. Kowalczyk, Lauren E. Stevens, Rachel M. Law, Ian N. Harman, Martin Dix, Charmaine N. Franklin, and Ying-Ping Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2771–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2771-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2771-2016, 2016
Short summary
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This paper compares two ACCESS model versions that differ only in their land surface scheme. Differences in the simulated present-day climate are attributed to differences in the representation of various land surface processes.
Cindy Cressot, Isabelle Pison, Peter J. Rayner, Philippe Bousquet, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, and Frédéric Chevallier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9089–9108, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9089-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9089-2016, 2016
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Several hypothesis have been made to attribute current trends in atmospheric methane to particular regions. In this context, this work aims at evaluating how well anomalies in methane emissions can be detected at the regional scale with currently available observing systems: two space-borne instruments and a surface network. Our results show that inter-annual analyses of methane emissions inferred by atmospheric inversions should always include an uncertainty assessment.
Peter Rayner, Anna M. Michalak, and Frédéric Chevallier
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-148, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-148, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
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Numerical models are among our most important tools for understanding and prediction. Models include quantities or equations that we cannot verify directly. We learn about these unknowns by comparing model output with observations and using some algorithm to improve the inputs. We show here that the many methods for doing this are special cases of underlying statistics. This provides a unified way of comparing and contrasting such methods.
Xia Zhang, Kevin R. Gurney, Peter Rayner, David Baker, and Yu-ping Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1907–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1907-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1907-2016, 2016
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This study presents a complete exploration of the space/time effect of time variations (diurnal, weekly, monthly) in fossil fuel emission on CO2 concentration. The paper identified rectifier effect at local to regional scale that is expected from fossil fuel emission and compared to biospheric rectification, and then extends the subject to column measurement. This study demonstrates the importance of considering sub-annual fossil fuel emissions on model simulation and related studies.
E. N. Koffi, P. J. Rayner, A. J. Norton, C. Frankenberg, and M. Scholze
Biogeosciences, 12, 4067–4084, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4067-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4067-2015, 2015
Short summary
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We investigate the utility of satellite measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) in constraining gross primary productivity (GPP). We simulate SIF with the biosphere model BETHY coupled with the fluorescence model SCOPE. The model simulates well the patterns of SIF. SIF is sensitive to leaf chlorophyll and incoming radiation but not to the key physiological parameter Vcmax controlling GPP. Thus, further model development is necessary before SIF can be used to constrain GPP.
S. Crowell, P. Rayner, S. Zaccheo, and B. Moore
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 2685–2697, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2685-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2685-2015, 2015
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We derive a yes/no requirement for the usefulness of an O2 lidar as part of the ASCENDS mission that incorporates errors due to atmospheric state misspecification as well as instrumental noise. We find that the larger the CO2 instrument's sensitivity to surface pressure errors, the lower the precision requirement for the O2 instrument to be useful. In particular, the 2um CO2 instrument would benefit the most from the inclusion of an O2 lidar with high precision retrievals of surface pressure.
A. Nickless, T. Ziehn, P.J. Rayner, R.J. Scholes, and F. Engelbrecht
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2051–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2051-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2051-2015, 2015
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This study aims to provide an optimal network design for the placement of new atmospheric monitoring stations around South Africa, to best estimate the emission and uptake of carbon dioxide fluxes due to both anthropogenic and natural sources. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed on the impact that certain parameters would have on the final network solution, considering the inverse modelling framework, the transport model and the use of a different optimisation routine.
P. J. Rayner, A. Stavert, M. Scholze, A. Ahlström, C. E. Allison, and R. M. Law
Biogeosciences, 12, 835–844, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-835-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-835-2015, 2015
Short summary
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Recent papers suggest a slow-down in the natural uptake of
anthropogenic CO2. We analyse recent trends in atmospheric concentration and
known inputs to test for such a slow-down. We see, rather, an increase
in uptake compared to a simple response to changing CO2 concentration. Using atmospheric models and statistical techniques we isolate this increased uptake to the northern temperate and boreal continents during summer, suggesting a stronger growing season.
Z. M. Loh, R. M. Law, K. D. Haynes, P. B. Krummel, L. P. Steele, P. J. Fraser, S. D. Chambers, and A. G. Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 305–317, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-305-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-305-2015, 2015
Short summary
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The paper compares methane observations at Cape Grim, Tasmania, with model-simulated methane to better constrain methane fluxes from southeastern Australia. Inventory estimates of anthropogenic methane emissions appear to be supported by observed atmospheric methane. A missing methane source in springtime (October to November) is tentatively attributed to wetland emissions.
S. R. Utembe, N. Jones, P. J. Rayner, I. Genkova, D. W. T. Griffith, D. M. O'Brien, C. Lunney, and A. J. Clark
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-31551-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-31551-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology to estimate CO2 emissions from an isolated power plant
is presented and illustrated for a power station in South Australia. It involves measurement of in-situ and column-averaged CO2 near the power plant, forward modelling of the observed signals (using WRF-Chem) and inverse modelling to obtain an estimate of the power plant fluxes. Better simulation is obtained for column data giving better estimates of fluxes. Our estimated emissions are within 6% of the reported values.
X. Zhang, K. R. Gurney, P. Rayner, Y. Liu, and S. Asefi-Najafabady
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2867–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2867-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2867-2014, 2014
P. J. Rayner, S. R. Utembe, and S. Crowell
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3285–3293, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3285-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3285-2014, 2014
T. Ziehn, A. Nickless, P. J. Rayner, R. M. Law, G. Roff, and P. Fraser
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9363–9378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9363-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9363-2014, 2014
S. Kemp, M. Scholze, T. Ziehn, and T. Kaminski
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1609–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1609-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1609-2014, 2014
P. Ciais, A. J. Dolman, A. Bombelli, R. Duren, A. Peregon, P. J. Rayner, C. Miller, N. Gobron, G. Kinderman, G. Marland, N. Gruber, F. Chevallier, R. J. Andres, G. Balsamo, L. Bopp, F.-M. Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Dargaville, T. J. Battin, A. Borges, H. Bovensmann, M. Buchwitz, J. Butler, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Cook, R. DeFries, R. Engelen, K. R. Gurney, C. Heinze, M. Heimann, A. Held, M. Henry, B. Law, S. Luyssaert, J. Miller, T. Moriyama, C. Moulin, R. B. Myneni, C. Nussli, M. Obersteiner, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, J.-D. Paris, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, S. Plummer, S. Quegan, P. Raymond, M. Reichstein, L. Rivier, C. Sabine, D. Schimel, O. Tarasova, R. Valentini, R. Wang, G. van der Werf, D. Wickland, M. Williams, and C. Zehner
Biogeosciences, 11, 3547–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, 2014
R. Lorenz, A. J. Pitman, M. G. Donat, A. L. Hirsch, J. Kala, E. A. Kowalczyk, R. M. Law, and J. Srbinovsky
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 545–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-545-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-545-2014, 2014
V. V. S. S. Sarma, A. Lenton, R. M. Law, N. Metzl, P. K. Patra, S. Doney, I. D. Lima, E. Dlugokencky, M. Ramonet, and V. Valsala
Biogeosciences, 10, 7035–7052, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7035-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7035-2013, 2013
P. Peylin, R. M. Law, K. R. Gurney, F. Chevallier, A. R. Jacobson, T. Maki, Y. Niwa, P. K. Patra, W. Peters, P. J. Rayner, C. Rödenbeck, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, and X. Zhang
Biogeosciences, 10, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6699-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6699-2013, 2013
A. Lenton, B. Tilbrook, R. M. Law, D. Bakker, S. C. Doney, N. Gruber, M. Ishii, M. Hoppema, N. S. Lovenduski, R. J. Matear, B. I. McNeil, N. Metzl, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, P. M. S. Monteiro, C. Rödenbeck, C. Sweeney, and T. Takahashi
Biogeosciences, 10, 4037–4054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4037-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4037-2013, 2013
S. M. Burrows, P. J. Rayner, T. Butler, and M. G. Lawrence
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5473–5488, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5473-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5473-2013, 2013
V. Haverd, M. R. Raupach, P. R. Briggs, J. G. Canadell., S. J. Davis, R. M. Law, C. P. Meyer, G. P. Peters, C. Pickett-Heaps, and B. Sherman
Biogeosciences, 10, 851–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-851-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-851-2013, 2013
C. M. Trudinger, I. G. Enting, P. J. Rayner, D. M. Etheridge, C. Buizert, M. Rubino, P. B. Krummel, and T. Blunier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1485–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1485-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1485-2013, 2013
D. A. Belikov, S. Maksyutov, M. Krol, A. Fraser, M. Rigby, H. Bian, A. Agusti-Panareda, D. Bergmann, P. Bousquet, P. Cameron-Smith, M. P. Chipperfield, A. Fortems-Cheiney, E. Gloor, K. Haynes, P. Hess, S. Houweling, S. R. Kawa, R. M. Law, Z. Loh, L. Meng, P. I. Palmer, P. K. Patra, R. G. Prinn, R. Saito, and C. Wilson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1093–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1093-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1093-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Optimal
Optimal design of a climatological network: beyond practical considerations
G. S. Mauger, K. A. Bumbaco, G. J. Hakim, and P. W. Mote
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 2, 199–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-2-199-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-2-199-2013, 2013
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Short summary
This study investigates the optimal location of greenhouse gas (GHG) measurement stations in Australia in order to derive GHG flux estimates from concentration measurements. We find that an optimal network designed for CO2 also performs well for other GHGs such as CH4 and N2O due to large similarities in the flux pattern for each of the three GHGs. Economic costs (i.e. maintenance costs) can be halved by selecting stations closer to the base laboratory with only a slight decrease in performance.
This study investigates the optimal location of greenhouse gas (GHG) measurement stations in...
