Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-14-541-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Tipping point analysis helps identify sensor phenomena in humidity data
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- Final revised paper (published on 19 Dec 2025)
- Preprint (discussion started on 21 May 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1461', Chris Boulton, 17 Jul 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Valerie N. Livina, 03 Oct 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Valerie N. Livina, 03 Oct 2025
- AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Valerie N. Livina, 03 Oct 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1461', Anonymous Referee #2, 27 Jul 2025
- AC4: 'Reply on RC2', Valerie N. Livina, 03 Oct 2025
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Valerie N. Livina on behalf of the Authors (03 Oct 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (22 Oct 2025) by Daniel Kastinen
AR by Valerie N. Livina on behalf of the Authors (23 Oct 2025)
Being a long-time user of early warning signals to predict tipping points, I found this paper to be quite an interesting read given its novel topic. I think the idea is there, but I have a few suggestions to improve the analysis and message of the paper to make it appeal to a broader audience.
My main suggestion would be to include variance analysis too as an EWS. There has been a lot of work recently that carries out the EWS analysis on Earth Observation data that is a merged product of multiple sensors. With an expected increase in the signal-to-noise ratio as newer sensors are included, the AR(1) should increase as observed in your work, but the variance would decrease at the same time. It seems that the combination of these would aid your work as it could rule out any ‘natural’ change in the system itself. Smith et al. (2023)* shows an example of this.
Linked to this, I think it’s important to highlight how these EWS are affected by the changes in measurement circumstances, from the viewpoint of the other stages in tipping point analysis such as prediction and the chance of false positives.
I also had some slight confusion about how and why ERA5 data is used at all. It would be good to explain that the large gaps in data (I assume) come from the station data and not ERA5. Also, why can’t the station data measurement just be used since the method used to create the reanalysis will not have the same issues?
I have a few more minor comments which should improve clarity:
Lines 77-80: This section is slightly confusing. I think it’s suggesting that the AR(1) has to reach 1 as a critical value but Kendall’s tau is also mentioned. I would be wary of saying that AR(1)=1 is critical when detrending has occurred in the time series it is calculated on as this alters the absolute value of AR(1). I would also refer to a ‘time series’ of the indicator throughout rather than ‘curve’.
Lines 91-94: This section may not be needed. The potential plots here have not been estimated, for example.
Line 113: What was wrong with the station that wasn’t used?
Fig. 1: What window length is being used here? I would also centre the x-axis on -1 to 1 in both panels.
Page 6: I think it’s important to say what the actual window length was that was used, and personally I would suggest trying a longer window length as well to see how the results contrast given the discussion on this page. Also, does the BCP analysis require any a priori input on the change of form that is searched for (e.g. looking for a certain number of changepoints)? If so, this should be stated.
Fig. 2: I feel like this could be better represented by a continuous blue to red scale rather than the size of the circles as I find it hard to distinguish between the sizes (except the blue ones look small).
Fig. 3: The red box is not defined in the figure caption.
Line 180: There are no detections in the 1980s in Figures 7 or 8.
Fig. 6-8: It would be good to add the red crosses on the bottom panels each time to see how they match up more clearly.
Line 191: The shifts in the 1980s happen in the Appendix but not in the figures in the main paper.
Appendix Table: Is this for detections above 0.8 with the BCP analysis? If so, it should say in the caption.
*Smith, T., Zotta, R.-M., Boulton, C. A., Lenton, T. M., Dorigo, W., and Boers, N.: Reliability of resilience estimation based on multi-instrument time series, Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 173–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, 2023.